Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.420608 2.898835 3.434714 4.077899 4.827020 5.670028 6.688497
2025-12-07 1.631844 2.206744 2.921428 3.868069 5.080974 6.574057 8.541151
2025-12-14 1.222449 1.829702 2.652063 3.831611 5.461450 7.612557 10.640267
2025-12-21 0.958318 1.567058 2.454549 3.816397 5.820343 8.620853 12.779339
2025-12-28 0.829450 1.462946 2.446061 4.042073 6.515448 10.136411 15.749587
2026-01-04 0.706416 1.337406 2.375049 4.148818 7.029626 11.426266 18.507076
2026-01-11 0.621829 1.255853 2.354587 4.321522 7.651351 12.921980 21.696646
2026-01-18 0.527357 1.135782 2.246117 4.325458 7.989585 13.995521 24.314788
2026-01-25 0.430882 0.990732 2.067142 4.175729 8.041620 14.598955 26.216826
2026-02-01 0.352593 0.864553 1.900225 4.019001 8.053474 15.122337 28.013489
2026-02-08 0.303725 0.789804 1.819512 4.009809 8.323414 16.100987 30.648739
2026-02-15 0.264455 0.727862 1.753897 4.018720 8.623038 17.150369 33.481307
2026-02-22 0.225881 0.660094 1.667032 3.976816 8.828658 18.064230 36.181136
2026-03-01 0.182833 0.570690 1.516674 3.778628 8.699354 18.343168 37.746976
2026-03-08 0.157059 0.520207 1.446730 3.745014 8.900762 19.265129 40.582179
2026-03-15 0.136248 0.478167 1.389379 3.730737 9.139027 20.275557 43.659764
2026-03-22 0.129360 0.475443 1.430132 3.952081 9.912116 22.416035 49.095076
2026-03-29 0.117891 0.455734 1.423290 4.056758 10.434718 24.084742 53.709116
2026-04-05 0.110121 0.446006 1.441584 4.226050 11.120939 26.144562 59.251856
2026-04-12 0.097295 0.415790 1.397649 4.229914 11.420962 27.409092 63.249325
2026-04-19 0.081567 0.370557 1.301903 4.083159 11.344376 27.853242 65.565323
2026-04-26 0.068078 0.329153 1.209089 3.929556 11.231698 28.204321 67.702109
2026-05-03 0.060078 0.306612 1.170226 3.920548 11.478621 29.376869 71.684184